MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9c14155a4aa64ad22027f34ee1fba08a8c0e0a06c277d04b64d2dc537d7cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 51,314$20,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,058.52 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 8,642$5,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.37 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 8,431$5,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,325 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 7,869$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.85 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 5,806$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.61 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 3,699$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.62 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 2,548$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.4 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 2,090$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.94 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 2,048$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.24 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,979$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.34 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Cleveland Guardians | 14c | 1,861$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.17 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 1,352$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,170$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.3 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 1,081$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.18 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 750.05$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.52 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 527.97$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 500$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 454.14$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 380.95$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 352$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 345.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 312.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…e4a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 262.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 216.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 13c | 196.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 182$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 166.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 148.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 139.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Cleveland Guardians | 9c | 124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…935fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 121$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 110.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 65.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 65.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 62.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 57.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 54.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 50.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 48.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 35.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…13e5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 26.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 22.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minnesota Twins | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.