TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Gentle Mates, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Gentle Mates44c21,142$9,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,788.3740945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Natus Vincere62c20,521$12,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,813.5924145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere55c12,068$6,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,589.0926650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gentle Mates46c9,799$4,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,307.1851749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Natus Vincere58c5,118$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9501330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Gentle Mates46c4,372$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.6753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Gentle Mates43c3,834$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.397443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Natus Vincere52c3,652$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.0254751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates48c3,125$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.0256357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gentle Mates41c2,848$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.768458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Natus Vincere12c2,627$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7260022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gentle Mates43c2,454$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.3865559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Natus Vincere52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Natus Vincere57c1,633$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.7811747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked Natus Vincere62c1,453$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.141338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Gentle Mates49c1,288$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.8656551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Natus Vincere57c1,055$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Gentle Mates47c1,045$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.291936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Natus Vincere62c1,013$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.138852.3%46 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Gentle Mates46c894.1$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.6526447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5789…6407backed Natus Vincere27c893.11$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.841540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Natus Vincere53c800$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4244742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates52c763.65$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.81,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Gentle Mates46c750$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4122346.6%104 W · 119 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere40c638.55$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4968949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Gentle Mates43c603.44$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.0124551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Gentle Mates44c541$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.21,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Natus Vincere36c537.29$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.147047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Gentle Mates49c508$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.0863955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Gentle Mates49c501$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.517655.3%42 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Gentle Mates47c500.1$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.0525453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d49…a319backed Natus Vincere61c491.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere41c428.74$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.061,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere43c398.61$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.671,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Natus Vincere26c389.82$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8939646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Natus Vincere40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x616b…f926backed Natus Vincere42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Gentle Mates59c326$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3399846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Natus Vincere38c302.89$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11511445.6%52 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gentle Mates48c301.95$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.018951.7%46 W · 43 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Gentle Mates45c300.25$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4132152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Natus Vincere56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16827145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Gentle Mates46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16253442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere45c296.56$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Gentle Mates40c295$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4328143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere5c295$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.181134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Gentle Mates70c290.28$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0878562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Gentle Mates45c271$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2896245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Natus Vincere32c261.17$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8150944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63f…b685backed Natus Vincere39c257.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6505…1feebacked Gentle Mates78c246.82$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.288654.7%47 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked Natus Vincere54c240.94$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.115062%31 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked Natus Vincere44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.427850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere33c225.7$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.091,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc13…cbcabacked Natus Vincere10c215.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Natus Vincere47c213.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Gentle Mates49c204$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.436145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cc6…4593backed Gentle Mates45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Natus Vincere34c190$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.64332.6%14 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Natus Vincere13c187.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3646347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13b…701ebacked Natus Vincere65c184.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Natus Vincere46c181$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3677744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere41c178$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Natus Vincere33c168.34$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0169722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Gentle Mates38c162.94$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2941835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Gentle Mates36c160.56$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.568848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dcb…50fcbacked Gentle Mates35c160$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Gentle Mates67c158.25$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.612862.5%80 W · 48 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-10.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Natus Vincere51c153.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8465347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7070…cdfdbacked Natus Vincere58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natus Vincere37c150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8557151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Natus Vincere36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6320138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b44…fcfcbacked Natus Vincere56c148.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-79.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Gentle Mates44c143.26$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6584838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Gentle Mates68c139$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.970043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked Gentle Mates36c133.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.339455.3%52 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa2e…b387backed Natus Vincere75c133.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Gentle Mates48c130.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1116451.8%85 W · 79 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gentle Mates65c130$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4674642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ce…3f1dbacked Gentle Mates76c124.67$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.923467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Gentle Mates34c124.59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2323836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Gentle Mates43c114.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.117052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Gentle Mates48c112.48$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4920160.2%121 W · 80 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2108…d3ddbacked Gentle Mates49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Gentle Mates39c102.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2412143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Natus Vincere67c100.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5722455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eac…67cbbacked Natus Vincere35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Natus Vincere60c90.19$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4116963.3%107 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Natus Vincere50c84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212948.1%62 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked Natus Vincere61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020347.3%96 W · 107 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Natus Vincere64c78.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507959.5%47 W · 32 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Gentle Mates63c74.79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.671,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed Natus Vincere50c73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.53250%16 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a41…20bdbacked Natus Vincere42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012250%61 W · 61 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Gentle Mates51c64.71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7110548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c03…ffcdbacked Natus Vincere26c62.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8441…1b27backed Gentle Mates63c62.08$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.97560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Gentle Mates48c61.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.158334.9%29 W · 54 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed Natus Vincere52c61.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.151782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4880backed Gentle Mates33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6120547.8%98 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.