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MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Phillies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Philliesof Nationals, Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$948,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$981,413

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $948,170 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals31c641,891$198,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198,627.0738043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Phillies69c155,328$107,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,151.8135952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Phillies69c121,864$83,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,867.9722852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Phillies69c119,919$82,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,027.071,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…4908backed Nationals32c108,625$34,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,760.142373.9%17 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+30.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Phillies69c88,000$60,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,28044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Phillies69c67,500$46,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,25048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Phillies69c56,955$39,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,761.411,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Phillies70c37,605$26,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,281.545248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Nationals31c34,567$10,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,715.7717351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Phillies68c32,674$22,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,305.5338751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Phillies69c21,028$14,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,438.691,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Phillies69c20,163$13,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300.5330255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Phillies69c13,000$8,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,03025453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Phillies68c12,000$8,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8401,15749.2%569 W · 588 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Phillies68c9,618$6,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,055.6843949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Nationals7c7,159$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002025%5 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Nationals32c6,295$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.133845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals28c5,825$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.8369249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61c…5953backed Nationals29c5,030$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.682040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb06…0e51backed Phillies77c4,132$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.59862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies75c3,559$2,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.792,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Phillies68c3,066$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.973352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e2c…ba05backed Phillies71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8702360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Phillies69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93011653.4%62 W · 54 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Phillies71c2,278$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.6263152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Phillies68c2,196$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.6756451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Phillies70c2,047$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.221,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Phillies76c1,714$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.627651.3%39 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals21c1,696$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.729,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Nationals30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Phillies75c1,322$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.3321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Phillies70c1,267$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.0125454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28092754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Nationals27c949.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.527733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals29c899.97$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Phillies68c800$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25613359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals30c708.01$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2870946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Phillies70c480.79$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2411959.7%71 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals29c469.32$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.151347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Phillies74c462.59$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.341,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nationals8c451.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.166,12855.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L+347.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Phillies71c411.42$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6480955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals29c400.01$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Phillies72c394.94$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.354,19750.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Phillies70c376$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.840629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Nationals30c360$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10899951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Phillies74c310.93$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.933060%18 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Phillies71c309$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.613253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Phillies68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9621538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Phillies71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873,31446.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Phillies69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8656351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Nationals31c271$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0146631.1%145 W · 321 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Phillies73c263.86$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.241,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Phillies69c215.47$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0473149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x834b…a37ebacked Phillies72c201.39$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.392263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Phillies69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6231145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals30c180.72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.391,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Nationals31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025551%130 W · 125 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc655…8467backed Nationals32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4824351.4%125 W · 118 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Nationals31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.56141%25 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Nationals16c146.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2276456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Phillies71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851,40055.1%772 W · 628 L-29.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae7…1884backed Phillies71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Phillies70c130$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398355.4%46 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4559…ca89backed Nationals30c127$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.123543.4%102 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Phillies69c108.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.551,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf7…cdb7backed Nationals32c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.645749.7%227 W · 230 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Phillies68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3266751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x385a…08d1backed Nationals17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd182…623cbacked Phillies72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3882…f15abacked Phillies71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee58…4af3backed Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036d…676cbacked Phillies72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2e…23ebbacked Nationals29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2ba…e49ebacked Phillies71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…5367backed Phillies71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fe…222ebacked Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb503…e640backed Phillies72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Nationals31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3115543.9%68 W · 87 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Phillies70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3014863.5%94 W · 54 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…0d07backed Nationals29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa677…a6e5backed Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…5bd1backed Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe991…7735backed Phillies72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5731…28bfbacked Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5468…b680backed Phillies72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f08…a8b6backed Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x462d…1fb1backed Phillies71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…ca56backed Nationals30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe920…e742backed Phillies72c97.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Phillies71c92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681,05750.4%533 W · 524 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Phillies70c88.7$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.611,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Nationals30c79.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2425440.6%103 W · 151 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Phillies70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4312355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.