TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Astros, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$584,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$585,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles56c337,811$188,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149,555.1638043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros45c142,316$63,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,639.611,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Astros44c89,000$39,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,159.9722852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Astros44c50,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,00044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles55c35,000$19,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,749.9460249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ad…208ebacked Astros45c33,986$15,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,144.8321740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Astros44c30,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,20048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles57c18,201$10,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,827.541,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Astros33c13,253$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,352.4421747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Astros28c12,971$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.511,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Orioles55c11,024$6,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,96138751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Orioles55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50011150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Astros44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40030255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Astros44c7,242$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.4563152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astros44c7,200$3,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1681,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros44c7,190$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.641,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Astros45c7,056$3,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.235952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Astros45c6,928$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,117.625453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Orioles56c6,250$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70099149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles51c4,812$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.292,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Astros49c4,066$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.3769249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Astros32c3,796$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.0854345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles54c3,363$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.9333845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Astros44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fd…a7dabacked Orioles56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1004153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Astros44c2,222$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.681,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Orioles56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88012655.6%70 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c67…4622backed Orioles54c1,367$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.81785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick43cpaid+116.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Orioles57c1,316$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.681,21540.5%492 W · 723 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Astros47c1,285$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.8518349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Astros43c1,160$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.7950843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Orioles58c1,031$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.4943946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4125551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Astros43c900$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38783248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles58c881.55$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.7980955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros26c801.86$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.169,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Astros43c756$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.0824547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Orioles50c547.87$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.549745.4%44 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Orioles56c511.14$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.924253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Orioles56c501$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.443253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Astros43c499.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21551151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Orioles55c480.22$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.071,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Astros47c460.49$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2870946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles61c449.75$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.344,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Orioles50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20027733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Astros44c399.99$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1763,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Astros44c399.67$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.91,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles55c358$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.11,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Orioles56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1453448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Astros44c350$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15433140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Astros43c348$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6431347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Orioles56c325$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14318749.2%92 W · 95 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Astros44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13221538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Orioles56c287.81$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4170841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles48c284.3$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.531,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Astros47c274.55$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0411446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Orioles56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8654654.9%300 W · 246 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Orioles57c263.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.498349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Orioles53c245.64$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4532651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5e9…3166backed Orioles74c243.24$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.248453.6%45 W · 39 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Orioles58c238$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10025454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Orioles65c222.3$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.719554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles56c217.86$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8699951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Orioles56c216$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0411961.3%73 W · 46 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d61…1808backed Orioles56c214.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2911056.4%62 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Astros49c203.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae3f…12fabacked Astros13c203.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8712025.8%31 W · 89 L-15.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4779…211fbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2019…a6a9backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3236…8f9ebacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd6…966cbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc94…72debacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b8…729cbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ba6…8340backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c32…3b86backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887251.4%37 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…27c5backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…c850backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0138…cdf1backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…620bbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888353%44 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb523…0d72backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb340…6b02backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef2…220bbacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f5…31d4backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc213…f12bbacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885250%26 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d18…f551backed Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x069c…ed7bbacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885046%23 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2916…bb5bbacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885435.2%19 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfffa…f24dbacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b3b…b5bdbacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a1…99aabacked Orioles56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40a0…a1c0backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf50e…b539backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e00…c26cbacked Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c6…ce67backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.