Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90be4580a96f53c57aa7d3d19aa8f845c56f5e5270547be6123f80fee3c70e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 64c | 21,934$13,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,937.43 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 1c | 17,348$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 16c | 15,093$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.01 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 39c | 14,868$5,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,747.79 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 79c | 13,886$10,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.87 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 15c | 13,007$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.33 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 28c | 11,510$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.66 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 36c | 9,244$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 79c | 8,057$6,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.01 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 38c | 4,130$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.87 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 77c | 2,172$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.08 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 76c | 1,933$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.57 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 39c | 1,700$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.88 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 39c | 1,350$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.53 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 23c | 1,127$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.26 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 55c | 1,003$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.58 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 46c | 954.65$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.21 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 805$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 54c | 750$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 600$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked No | 54c | 556$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…8996backed No | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…60c2backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…0644backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…d24ebacked No | 65c | 420$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65aa…6db2backed Yes | 70c | 413.87$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 60c | 398.2$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 50c | 370.33$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.43 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 315.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…0138backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 139.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 24c | 113.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…b701backed No | 71c | 106.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…d3d6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6583backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…593dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…2f34backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…9010backed No | 62c | 96.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…44b9backed No | 44c | 87.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 36c | 58.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ee…5ea5backed No | 60c | 53.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1329…b550backed Yes | 51c | 49.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed No | 47c | 38.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed No | 58c | 35.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4400 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4500 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.