Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62811e4edf2d73e116db54804bd53ddbce63ca6e3884818ee9605d698e40fad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d8c…1eb7backed Yes | 0c | 25,369$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 0c | 12,638$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 37c | 10,622$3,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.1 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 57c | 10,305$5,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 6,096$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.86 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 5c | 5,646$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 78c | 4,819$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.42 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,747$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 21c | 2,212$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.89 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed No | 72c | 1,384$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…8771backed Yes | 27c | 921.19$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…bb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed No | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 26c | 383.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes | 16c | 174.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c4…329dbacked No | 64c | 156.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…f8b9backed Yes | 15c | 133.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e1…f631backed Yes | 16c | 132.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…3bd3backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…b701backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…4293backed Yes | 16c | 125.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 36c | 56.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…1c91backed Yes | 24c | 47.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed No | 80c | 33.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…6cd0backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4400 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4500 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.