Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4300 August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5505e24e5c2c8b95af04720bba7f823c5e64285a43e9c625d5ab7ad734884c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 53c | 32,508$17,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,405.3 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 43c | 13,237$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,595.8 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 43c | 12,154$5,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,188.19 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 59c | 11,075$6,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,491.14 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 29c | 3,714$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 69c | 3,411$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.67 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 26c | 3,019$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.17 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 11c | 2,196$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 27c | 2,153$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.53 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2bfcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,800$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…44b9backed No | 2c | 1,781$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 55c | 1,656$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…0138backed Yes | 69c | 1,500$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…60c2backed Yes | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…0644backed Yes | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 69c | 1,000$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed Yes | 68c | 857.52$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.95 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 52c | 624.66$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.88 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 49c | 581.31$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 41c | 509.63$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.9 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 494.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…9a53backed Yes | 71c | 492.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…654cbacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 58c | 191.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…b701backed No | 59c | 168.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 30c | 160$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…16e6backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked No | 39c | 90.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed Yes | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked No | 51c | 46.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed No | 47c | 38.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 August 25–31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4400 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4500 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.