Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543617b5bea3de33fa51713a03b579b328f4c8bfa9fa5e3dd409315cb6baf02c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 49c | 9,261$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,539.23 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 65c | 8,383$5,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.52 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 47c | 5,009$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,654.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 55c | 5,000$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,251.84 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,510$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 40c | 3,034$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.62 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 68c | 2,065$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…d9e3backed Yes | 18c | 1,923$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecd…594abacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,066$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.54 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac4…c8ccbacked Yes | 3c | 769.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 53c | 758.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.08 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 7c | 756.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…e925backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Yes | 4c | 533.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 52c | 420.43$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…44b9backed Yes | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…96a7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…b701backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 45c | 170.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 62c | 162.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…d92dbacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 78c | 122.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…468dbacked No | 65c | 92.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c4…a5a9backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee2…01a9backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed No | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed No | 44c | 40.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…b75cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 25–31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4400 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4500 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 August 25–31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.