Movies · resolved market
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $51–55M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ae43e53f026176c67a107f97d1c35173c38f95bd22d3a58976a8fc4efbe491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 22,064$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 4c | 12,198$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,823$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 27c | 3,600$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.52 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 20c | 2,586$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.15 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,571$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,486$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 9c | 2,454$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.66 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,168$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.91 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,672$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 80c | 1,555$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.53 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,517$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,363$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…658dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…bad7backed Yes | 2c | 1,064$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 902.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 864.33$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.38 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…4ea4backed Yes | 3c | 770$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…3a20backed Yes | 3c | 765.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Yes | 1c | 710.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 77c | 639.92$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.58 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 3c | 618.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 9c | 590.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…b04fbacked Yes | 4c | 537.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 75c | 510.46$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 36c | 501.58$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 4c | 346.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 337$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 36c | 219.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 202$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3324…88e3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 11c | 177.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 71c | 163.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 15c | 131.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…d08cbacked Yes | 12c | 113.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 33c | 92.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…d8d1backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $51–55M?this page
- Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $43–47M?No won
- Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $47–51M?No won
- Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M?No won
- Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.