Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d1cc7775688c2cb87b07f89c2302c867ef77255ea4e65e7589194b95f0c22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $429,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $425,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb00f…db97backed Yes | 16c | 155,045$24,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,996 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…63cdbacked Yes | 16c | 43,663$6,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,910 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Yes | 4c | 32,039$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…b117backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 10,122$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.04 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yes | 31c | 10,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…e98ebacked No | 69c | 9,935$6,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.13 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Yes | 14c | 6,146$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 78c | 5,054$3,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.93 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…447bbacked Yes | 15c | 5,033$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 2,297$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e24…b99cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,200$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,144$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.89 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,914$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.9 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 76c | 1,819$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 65c | 1,100$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 68c | 1,000$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +9.3wins | +0.23per pick | 29cpaid | +261.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 2c | 796$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…a1a2backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Yes | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…ea97backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 580.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed No | 69c | 546.67$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 14c | 535.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 14c | 470$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…721ebacked Yes | 14c | 384.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…fa80backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…74ebbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 7c | 305.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 14c | 266.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…9d3dbacked Yes | 4c | 266.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 12c | 258.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…54e6backed Yes | 14c | 227.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 14c | 225.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…da6bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 12c | 172.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809e…0963backed Yes | 15c | 169.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 33c | 169.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…d1b7backed Yes | 15c | 131.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 15c | 118.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…27c6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…2c69backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…4415backed Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 25c | 62.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09?this page
- Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.