NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G1: Will SGA score 34+ points against the Pacers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc133165266b7927b991f1298e3e1039c08bd308206a91d72594fac7287d6da2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4511…3efebacked No | 52c | 33,024$17,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,172.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…d0a5backed Yes | 48c | 33,024$15,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,172.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 51c | 10,871$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,372.58 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 49c | 9,780$4,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,792.01 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed No | 54c | 579.63$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed No | 52c | 382.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 46c | 360.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 10c | 222.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 49c | 216.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 47c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 46c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…69d4backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 48c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fe…c7c1backed No | 54c | 31.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…efefbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…9ad1backed Yes | 52c | 25.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…e2fcbacked No | 54c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…75f7backed Yes | 52c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…567dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…c844backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…44a8backed No | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.