MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080ff62c0a0b41b60078ae824236c2520eaa2c1615c7420651c8e6f6fc394ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Reds, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Reds | 43c | 23,359$10,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,044.51 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros | 57c | 19,037$10,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,185.91 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 57c | 1,825$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.74 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Astros | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 61c | 528.67$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Astros | 57c | 444.38$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 57c | 434.73$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.93 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Astros | 57c | 426$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.18 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 42c | 373.28$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Reds | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Astros | 58c | 345.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astros | 59c | 299.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Reds | 41c | 244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Reds | 42c | 240.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Reds | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Astros | 56c | 235.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Astros | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Astros | 58c | 172.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Reds | 34c | 160.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…e479backed Astros | 58c | 155$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Reds | 43c | 139.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Astros | 57c | 110.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Astros | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Reds | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…6d35backed Reds | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Astros | 58c | 67.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 247 | 51%126 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6180…b73ebacked Reds | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Astros | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 65c | 48.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Reds | 43c | 46.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Reds | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 43c | 33.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Reds | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Astros | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…ec09backed Reds | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…167dbacked Astros | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.