World Politics · resolved market
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6739ce609d63ceb9521bf17ecea3ab8b14d3355c0981f01abeee2df68062982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 77c | 15,141$11,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,556.11 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 76c | 11,591$8,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.78 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 14c | 11,109$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 10,027$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…44d0backed Yes | 22c | 6,237$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…22a8backed Yes | 28c | 4,500$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.85 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…58a1backed No | 79c | 4,230$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…80fbbacked Yes | 22c | 4,145$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes | 5c | 3,781$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,661$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,616$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Yes | 15c | 3,418$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…e5a1backed Yes | 23c | 3,017$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…ef27backed Yes | 29c | 2,806$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…dc43backed Yes | 23c | 2,100$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,642$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a1…2870backed Yes | 21c | 1,624$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,619$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 34c | 1,451$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 2c | 1,419$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 1,413$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.64 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked No | 74c | 1,347$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…7e60backed No | 79c | 1,272$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,206$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 25c | 1,185$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 21c | 1,182$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.31 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,133$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 73c | 1,000$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.05 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 4c | 981$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed Yes | 11c | 969.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…d4a6backed Yes | 2c | 968$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 10c | 908.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…8e21backed Yes | 14c | 851.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 797$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 35c | 744.93$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 2c | 722$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 711.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 72c | 703$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…6237backed Yes | 14c | 699.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 674$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 626$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes | 19c | 523.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 3c | 503$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 15c | 465.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 3c | 428$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 400.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 12c | 350.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 14c | 334.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…a2bcbacked Yes | 13c | 321.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…4377backed No | 79c | 318.88$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…1171backed No | 77c | 309.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked No | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 76c | 299.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 20c | 283.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 25c | 258.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes | 15c | 243.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 30c | 236.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 4c | 234$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…3335backed Yes | 26c | 226.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 71c | 219.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…6a4ebacked Yes | 30c | 202.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…df91backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0907…fa3ebacked Yes | 30c | 184.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 10c | 168.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed No | 75c | 167.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +201%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 23c | 150.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…9356backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked No | 70c | 142.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 141.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 140.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked Yes | 13c | 128.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 13c | 128.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 16c | 119$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…9f9abacked Yes | 18c | 113.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 32c | 110.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…70e3backed Yes | 26c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 14c | 103.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…4936backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…a1dcbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…5c79backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 19c | 96.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…98c0backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc7…b6e4backed No | 70c | 90.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…a9c5backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 76c | 86.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes | 17c | 85.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…7b9abacked Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…f7a4backed Yes | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…5879backed Yes | 17c | 74.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…9a25backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…d4ecbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.