TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed No77c15,141$11,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,556.1148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No76c11,591$8,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.785149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b89…e708backed Yes14c11,109$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.451118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes2c10,027$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.22100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4e…44d0backed Yes22c6,237$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…22a8backed Yes28c4,500$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.85137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27af…58a1backed No79c4,230$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+42.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13be…80fbbacked Yes22c4,145$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.05812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes5c3,781$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.071533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee64…c04ebacked Yes19c3,661$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c3,616$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1518216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2901…f4d6backed Yes15c3,418$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…e5a1backed Yes23c3,017$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762f…ef27backed Yes29c2,806$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5167…dc43backed Yes23c2,100$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed No77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes2c1,642$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a1…2870backed Yes21c1,624$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes2c1,619$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked Yes34c1,451$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes2c1,419$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes18c1,413$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6427828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked No74c1,347$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.65650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28df…7e60backed No79c1,272$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes2c1,206$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2028…e658backed Yes25c1,185$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes21c1,182$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.315532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,133$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.381,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No73c1,000$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.054045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes4c981$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.12100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6a…3134backed Yes11c969.13$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.61050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81a1…d4a6backed Yes2c968$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c908.6$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.861030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da4…8e21backed Yes14c851.43$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes2c797$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes35c744.93$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.033250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes2c722$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes20c711.61$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.433917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No72c703$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.616538.5%25 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d48…6237backed Yes14c699.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes2c674$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes2c626$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes19c523.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae19…11aebacked Yes3c503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed Yes15c465.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.741127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-52.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes3c428$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.670%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c400.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.081,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes12c350.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9411222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes14c334.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.223423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea6f…a2bcbacked Yes13c321.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd480…4377backed No79c318.88$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc46a…1171backed No77c309.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.15366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c87…f49ebacked No72c300$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831936.8%7 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed No76c299.99$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes20c283.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.618123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No25c258.39$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.811850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes15c243.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes30c236.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes4c234$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3adc…3335backed Yes26c226.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No71c219.69$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.713043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a55…6a4ebacked Yes30c202.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b5…df91backed Yes28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0907…fa3ebacked Yes30c184.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes10c168.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.454327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+189.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cac…1695backed No75c167.36$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+201%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes23c150.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2131443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ad2…9356backed Yes27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…818bbacked No70c142.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.621233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes15c141.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9545723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c140.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203417.6%6 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf812…494bbacked Yes13c128.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-76.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae89…9fb7backed Yes13c128.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes16c119$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.563333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272c…9f9abacked Yes18c113.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes32c110.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.233411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…70e3backed Yes26c105$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes14c103.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2934726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2d…4936backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198b…a1dcbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e7…5c79backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes19c96.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.981844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfadf…98c0backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc7…b6e4backed No70c90.61$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3900…a9c5backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd098…3307backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick25cpaid+166.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No76c86.76$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.464365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes17c85.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac0…7b9abacked Yes21c84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8a…f7a4backed Yes31c83.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+233.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa47a…5879backed Yes17c74.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a53…9a25backed No69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x436b…d4ecbacked No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.