Movies · resolved market
Will 'Nosferatu' win an Oscar?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee45ab7fb3be9f590e6a6eeb43ec76f2bee9bb798ec593e81c6ca8a306df8f51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 26c | 2,985$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 17c | 1,894$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.65 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,002$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 73c | 900$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 73c | 613.03$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…ef04backed Yes | 20c | 522.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 80c | 444$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…0950backed No | 71c | 390$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 16c | 302.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 80c | 301.78$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 25c | 290.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 21c | 282.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 78c | 268.18$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 24c | 225$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…6625backed Yes | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 10c | 104.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 100.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…34f4backed Yes | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 79c | 78.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9969backed Yes | 21c | 72.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7d…898bbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…6a4ebacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…bf81backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…abffbacked Yes | 26c | 58.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…68d9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 40.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1987backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 80c | 19.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…10d0backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b988backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.