Movies · resolved market
Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b32397d1f81bf752b8473fa2280067feded27ec773ca10bf836d8dd2760323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 25c | 1,432$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.1 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 80c | 815$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 4c | 763.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 14c | 704.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…0610backed No | 5c | 609.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 3c | 571$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 62c | 431.02$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 350.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 5c | 345.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 328.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 73c | 203.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 31c | 203.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked No | 9c | 174.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 10c | 119.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 57c | 99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 62c | 97.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…0c54backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec32…e87fbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?this page
- Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be 98 or more?No won
- Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-84?No won
- Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?No won
- Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.