NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd149d0e06fa0f6223163860dfec4f94a0fba14eaedf0481107ae2b3213756de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Warriors | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Timberwolves | 49c | 7,729$3,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,941.86 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 5,596$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.08 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Warriors | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Warriors | 52c | 1,298$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.73 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 676.25$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.65 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 529.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 317.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 216$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Timberwolves | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Warriors | 58c | 173.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Timberwolves | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Timberwolves | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Warriors | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…d932backed Timberwolves | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Warriors | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Timberwolves | 25c | 48.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Timberwolves | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Timberwolves | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Warriors | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- Over 199.5Over won
- Over 200.5Over won
- Over 201.5Over won
- Over 202.5Over won
- Over 203.5Over won
- Over 204.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Warriors vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.