TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs Thunder: O/U 213.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,039 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe45d…f77ebacked Over53c377.36$200 inWon+$177.3625336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed Under48c300$144 inLost-$1449341.9%39 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Over52c300$156 inWon+$1444654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36e…a46cbacked Over54c200$108 inWon+$92540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Under46c200$92 inLost-$9270640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under46c199.99$92 inLost-$9235049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4919…0c56backed Over53c189.09$100 inWon+$89.099742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Under33c150$50 inLost-$49.52725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over55c127.27$70 inWon+$57.274641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over67c120$80 inWon+$39.63345.5%15 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under46c112.63$52 inLost-$51.922,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb20e…022bbacked Over57c110.74$63 inWon+$47.62825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c100$50 inLost-$5078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under51c100$51 inLost-$50.521056.2%118 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Over50c90$45 inWon+$4546426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fc…3f73backed Over67c30$20 inWon+$9.92850%14 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under45c25.3$11 inLost-$11.3618146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.