TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs Thunder: O/U 208.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,125
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,125 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1889…0714backed Under55c150$83 inLost-$82.521056.2%118 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1726…3986backed Over45c150$68 inWon+$82.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Over66c150$100 inWon+$50.52944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Over66c109$72 inWon+$37.0636747.7%175 W · 192 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Under37c100$37 inLost-$3714254.2%77 W · 65 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+24.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Over27c84.71$23 inWon+$61.6170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69fc…3f73backed Over49c60$29 inWon+$30.62850%14 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Over66c40.17$27 inWon+$13.6648255%265 W · 217 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.