NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d4054f89a5ff288ed00fa777349c382cec28219953c0691ac3d94222201582

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved: May 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $146,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $147,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,638 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8679…4659backed Nuggets	50c	114,280$57,448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57,448.04	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Thunder	50c	99,163$49,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49,614.12	83	33.7%28 W · 55 L	-7.6wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder	48c	10,250$4,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,330	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Thunder	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,099.99	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Nuggets	53c	9,000$4,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,737.25	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder	47c	8,108$3,778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,329.84	299	57.2%171 W · 128 L	+11.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Nuggets	51c	4,118$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+39%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Thunder	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470	70	51.4%36 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Nuggets	53c	3,000$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Thunder	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,560	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Nuggets	50c	2,018$1,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.1	136	36.8%50 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder	46c	2,002$921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,081	181	46.4%84 W · 97 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Nuggets	54c	1,666$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.98	173	35.8%62 W · 111 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder	46c	1,579$724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$855.35	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Nuggets	54c	1,088$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583	147	27.9%41 W · 106 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Nuggets	20c	1,082$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.6	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Nuggets	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Nuggets	51c	1,000$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512	53	62.3%33 W · 20 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Thunder	46c	959.28$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.01	200	47%94 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder	50c	887.77$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$446.91	1,752	40.6%712 W · 1,040 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nuggets	2c	862.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2da5…204ebacked Nuggets	51c	854.9$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Nuggets	53c	656.88$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder	46c	478.26$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.26	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder	43c	462.46$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.72	706	40.8%288 W · 418 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Thunder	47c	455.18$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.25	575	50.3%289 W · 286 L	+7.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9f…59f3backed Nuggets	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Nuggets	51c	333$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.83	161	60.9%98 W · 63 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Thunder	49c	333$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.83	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+70.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Nuggets	52c	230.77$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed Nuggets	51c	225$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.75	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked Nuggets	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Thunder	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	+17.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c4a…74ddbacked Thunder	51c	120$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Thunder	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Nuggets	52c	81.85$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	89	29.2%26 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb620…9fdebacked Thunder	52c	70$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4341…2c3abacked Nuggets	70c	59.6$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Nuggets	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	160	61.3%98 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Thunder	52c	55.96$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.86	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-4.8wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72cf…01b4backed Nuggets	49c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed Nuggets	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ae…fbbfbacked Nuggets	49c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Thunder	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…b560backed Nuggets	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Nuggets	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca8…1698backed Nuggets	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event