TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2105…b560

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
177
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT9543.2%41 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 95 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.96
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
San Francisco Giants vs. Athleticsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$25.19
San Francisco Giants vs. Athleticsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$59.48
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+257.3%+$51.47
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+109%+$31.05
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.11
Blue Jays vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Dodgers vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Dodgers vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Giants vs. Diamondbacksbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.51
Dodgers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.61
Dodgers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Dodgers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+106.6%+$58.62
Mets vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Diamondbacks vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Diamondbacks vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$31.68
Showing 25 of 95 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST2751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11.9
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$23.2
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$58.5
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$23.14
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+57.9%+$32.99
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+222.6%+$89.03
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+188.5%+$57.87
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+393.8%+$47.1
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.15
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$26.84
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Steelers vs. Lionsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+97.4%+$14.61
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+70.1%+$28.04
Giants vs. Lionsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15.15
Lions vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+75.4%+$11.97
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+81.5%+$9.32
Packers vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$13.03
Bears vs. Commandersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Patriots vs. Saintsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$7
Cowboys vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$33.43
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+193.3%+$28.99
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.38
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.04
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+203%+$80.38
Knicks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+161.9%+$40.48
Nuggets vs. Mavericksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Pistons vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.8
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.52
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.9
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+185%+$73.98
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$44.44
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 24 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61.3%+$14.79
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+179.4%+$30.5
Michigan vs. Texasbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.04
USC vs. TCUbacked USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Tennessee vs. Illinoisbacked Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+194.5%+$38.89
Georgia Tech vs. BYUbacked Georgia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$16
New Mexico vs. Minnesotabacked Minnesota · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+96.1%+$14.05
Central Michigan vs. Northwesternbacked Northwestern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+31.6%+$6.32
California vs. Hawaiibacked California · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Northwestern vs. Illinoisbacked Northwestern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$24.95
Oregon vs. Iowabacked Iowa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$12.96
Northwestern vs. USCbacked Northwestern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Texas vs. Ohio Statebacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.2
Devils vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.4
Oilers vs. Jetsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+98.1%+$25.07
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$16.11
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+63.8%+$10.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$381.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford backed Canelo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.