TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Panthers, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,305,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,223,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,305,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 454 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18d2…81e0backed Panthers57c295,242$168,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,901.58887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick61cpaid+43.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Maple Leafs34c272,406$92,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,678.862330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Panthers60c103,913$61,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,972.482853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Panthers56c102,000$57,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,88044848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Maple Leafs43c75,000$32,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,250683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+54.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Panthers55c68,581$37,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,861.4814057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x227d…83bdbacked Maple Leafs44c52,550$23,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,121.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Maple Leafs26c48,541$12,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,377.9911441.2%47 W · 67 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Maple Leafs44c47,793$20,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,980.2910745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Panthers58c45,110$26,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,946.195147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Maple Leafs43c42,498$18,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,316.1926344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Maple Leafs44c40,092$17,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,755.863844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Maple Leafs2c34,921$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.0533837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc642…565ebacked Maple Leafs29c34,049$9,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,748.431717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Maple Leafs43c29,763$12,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,798.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Panthers56c27,208$15,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,935.6631546.3%146 W · 169 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a2…3b96backed Panthers58c24,088$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,087.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Panthers54c18,095$9,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,323.9136242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccba…0ce8backed Maple Leafs1c16,677$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.634434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a5…62d5backed Maple Leafs18c16,032$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Panthers56c13,342$7,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,870.465843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Maple Leafs42c13,095$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.8637738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs0c12,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b0…f1d0backed Maple Leafs0c10,327$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7988…9619backed Maple Leafs46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6002334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Panthers57c9,433$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.184852.1%25 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Maple Leafs5c9,065$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6617448.9%85 W · 89 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Maple Leafs14c8,652$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.4128842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Panthers56c7,881$4,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.6413655.1%75 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Maple Leafs27c7,778$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.6170249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dec…c5b2backed Maple Leafs1c7,546$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Maple Leafs42c7,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Maple Leafs43c6,924$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Maple Leafs43c6,700$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88166951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee27…3fa1backed Maple Leafs3c6,619$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…8687backed Panthers77c6,282$4,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.05887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick60cpaid+51.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Maple Leafs45c6,278$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Panthers59c5,763$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.714151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Maple Leafs42c5,591$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.087361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbba2…5172backed Maple Leafs44c5,550$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Panthers57c5,500$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3654641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Maple Leafs1c4,985$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.631458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa524…c4dabacked Maple Leafs45c4,754$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Maple Leafs44c4,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98032251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2693…9a84backed Maple Leafs44c4,304$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb03b…62e0backed Maple Leafs4c4,200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14980%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Maple Leafs17c4,191$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Panthers57c4,000$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…13b6backed Panthers55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.993748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3d…f7afbacked Panthers55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.951080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+51.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Panthers72c3,911$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.513,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Panthers57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.774763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Panthers58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Panthers56c3,294$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.354067.5%27 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Panthers75c3,259$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.591952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Maple Leafs43c3,104$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.8592848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Maple Leafs43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2906940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Maple Leafs38c2,969$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.734050%20 W · 20 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Maple Leafs43c2,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07525552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97d…5e65backed Maple Leafs45c2,499$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9711…3fa1backed Panthers58c2,487$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.011353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Maple Leafs42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0272847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdc…0771backed Maple Leafs43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Maple Leafs43c2,325$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7423642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1953…9e2ebacked Maple Leafs3c2,324$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cdd…eaf2backed Maple Leafs45c2,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc970…a19bbacked Maple Leafs30c2,221$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6608740.2%35 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Panthers56c2,195$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9662611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5413backed Maple Leafs12c2,178$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.167948.1%38 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x670d…0825backed Maple Leafs44c2,123$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.121361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Panthers75c2,100$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a5…3b86backed Panthers56c2,095$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Panthers56c2,071$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.421,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs43c2,058$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.271,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Maple Leafs5c2,013$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10454418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Maple Leafs4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8021620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Maple Leafs42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8409942.4%42 W · 57 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Panthers56c1,935$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.4330549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed Maple Leafs44c1,859$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x112f…5c03backed Maple Leafs1c1,816$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Maple Leafs29c1,815$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.025754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Maple Leafs45c1,812$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.4211145.9%51 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…cd5bbacked Panthers57c1,732$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4729…1661backed Maple Leafs3c1,707$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…323cbacked Maple Leafs45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Maple Leafs2c1,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.55347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Maple Leafs1c1,450$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51016.9%7 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa068…9574backed Maple Leafs42c1,429$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.46946.4%32 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Maple Leafs46c1,400$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6442437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa680…d1f1backed Maple Leafs1c1,365$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs44c1,365$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.511,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Panthers56c1,327$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.8612462.9%78 W · 46 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Panthers70c1,324$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.113363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Maple Leafs11c1,269$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404226.2%11 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee46…bff8backed Maple Leafs2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Maple Leafs44c1,228$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.399747.4%46 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed Panthers56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Maple Leafs30c1,200$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.4225555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf303…64f5backed Panthers56c1,144$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Maple Leafs42c1,135$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.