TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof San Francisco Giants, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$555,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$586,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics77c74,236$56,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,345.6210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc336…02abbacked San Francisco Giants9c72,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,480425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked San Francisco Giants45c44,013$19,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,806.067755.8%43 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics54c30,805$16,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,170.1377053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics63c30,479$19,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,228.942,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants36c27,523$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.931,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants35c25,157$8,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,715.382,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Athletics35c21,000$7,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,717.1714042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants37c18,064$6,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,630.861,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Athletics56c17,684$9,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,781.0113045.4%59 W · 71 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics62c16,620$10,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,303.71,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked San Francisco Giants45c13,333$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00024344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Athletics55c11,533$6,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,189.997550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed San Francisco Giants44c11,464$5,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,044.2486548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics55c11,418$6,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,113.875,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked San Francisco Giants46c11,000$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.9217853.4%95 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants48c9,905$4,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,758.9812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked San Francisco Giants46c8,873$4,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,081.588441.7%35 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Athletics72c8,166$5,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.743554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed San Francisco Giants35c6,877$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4006653%35 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics54c6,796$3,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.533,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics67c6,237$4,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.4711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics77c5,527$4,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.78,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed San Francisco Giants45c5,500$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50037953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Athletics53c5,421$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9316947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants46c5,092$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.184,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics56c4,352$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.942,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked San Francisco Giants13c4,347$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.21,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics53c4,324$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.562,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics54c3,953$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.421,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics55c3,800$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.856,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked Athletics55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5752254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants64c3,448$2,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.774,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Athletics55c3,273$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.7328944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Athletics63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1101258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c6…d4a3backed San Francisco Giants4c2,803$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.21729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-33.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics56c2,673$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.123,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics70c2,296$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.579,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed San Francisco Giants45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics72c2,210$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.386,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics54c2,016$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.094,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Athletics54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9201,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Athletics40c1,618$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.899153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x316b…5d97backed Athletics55c1,587$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants14c1,565$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21261351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed San Francisco Giants1c1,551$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8440629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics63c1,549$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.971,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics55c1,480$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.961,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics72c1,203$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.291,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…5ff5backed Athletics56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5281450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28a…56e0backed Athletics56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5286100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x168c…53b0backed Athletics56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5284100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed San Francisco Giants24c1,165$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.391,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a90…1dddbacked San Francisco Giants44c1,130$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.22339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Athletics55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.9121147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Athletics55c1,016$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.251547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Athletics54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46019248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Athletics56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4408557.6%49 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe53f…06d7backed Athletics55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Athletics55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4509350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed Athletics55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed San Francisco Giants10c974.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked San Francisco Giants30c854.18$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.379147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Athletics55c818.18$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.1832350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb97…7ae1backed San Francisco Giants52c756.85$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.518534.1%29 W · 56 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics61c699.05$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.554,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked San Francisco Giants14c646.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6910846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Athletics55c637.27$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.95,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed San Francisco Giants54c584.61$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.731,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed San Francisco Giants45c580.41$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.259535.8%34 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked San Francisco Giants40c566$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7667742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Athletics55c563.64$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.6446749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed San Francisco Giants47c562.86$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3931958.6%187 W · 132 L+27.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked San Francisco Giants36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Athletics55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22582741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed San Francisco Giants8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Athletics62c473.95$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.12,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Athletics55c473.39$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0350751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed San Francisco Giants4c450$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed San Francisco Giants45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Athletics55c411.67$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1147652.9%252 W · 224 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics72c409.09$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.088,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0706…f25dbacked Athletics70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206669.7%46 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked San Francisco Giants57c398.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.149942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked San Francisco Giants46c362.07$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.552356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Athletics60c331.46$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.052,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics80c328.53$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.751,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Athletics55c327.27$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2740449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed San Francisco Giants61c323.51$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19650860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics55c320.19$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.146,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x485a…a7c3backed Athletics52c309.62$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.626848.5%33 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ef3…df7fbacked San Francisco Giants30c301.15$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8911725.6%30 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants64c300.08$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.051,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Athletics55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13534648.6%168 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Athletics55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13550647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked San Francisco Giants10c280.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9233515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.