MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2cba55fbf458000e8a59a0f9002cea421a67bf7c4279f94db58f465e5e101a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 47c | 7,017$3,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.1 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 6,161$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 5,454$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 3,826$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 62c | 3,023$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 38c | 2,938$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 54c | 1,296$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.3 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed Under | 55c | 906.63$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 68c | 441.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 48c | 414.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.8 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 351.62$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 310.13$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 291.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 37c | 210$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 193.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 169$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 52c | 107.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 34c | 101$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 96.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 48c | 90.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 38c | 82.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Over | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 38c | 61.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 73c | 60.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 53c | 53.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 50c | 50.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 50c | 50.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 50c | 50.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 50c | 50.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 38c | 47.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7e77backed Under | 46c | 43.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 42.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 34c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 33.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.