MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed89c0f00a883631da0116410c59bfb702d115bee754ade212784e62678a2eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Athletics, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 43c | 5,747$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 5,562$3,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 39c | 5,406$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 3,130$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,411$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 1,172$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 434$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 425.91$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 32c | 356.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Athletics | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Athletics | 41c | 262.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Athletics | 39c | 181.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 164.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 109.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 89.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 82.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 32c | 62.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 55.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Athletics | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 23.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.