MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf18d4ddaf445a2c756f094146d7e7675c72e1a1fa483512533cb9d88465bff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 4,475$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 4,442$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 2,800$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 52c | 2,800$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.62 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 2,656$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 29c | 357.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 202.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 54c | 184.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 25c | 136.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 58c | 135.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 82.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 65.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 61c | 60.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1261…b398backed Under | 39c | 60.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 54.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 50c | 49.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 53c | 45.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 75c | 37.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 36c | 33.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Over | 44c | 28.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 56c | 28.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 53c | 26.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Over | 53c | 26.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 26.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 53c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.