MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c801ecdb260280093e75f0c2a00d0b05e98a0c91f32188317d74b98817101b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 13,842$6,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,363.18 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 12,427$6,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,807.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 7,808$4,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,001.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 5,961$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 1,619$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 54c | 1,351$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.46 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 1,203$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 46c | 1,197$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.14 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 1,174$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 1,032$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 47c | 754.72$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 47c | 581.09$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.11 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 47c | 546.57$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.89 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 341.51$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 46c | 287.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 275.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 28c | 266.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 27c | 242.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 47c | 233.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 27c | 214.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 59c | 156.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 147.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 47c | 127.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 45c | 121.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 47c | 111.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 104.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 46c | 93.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 47c | 81.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 75.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 49c | 71.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 51c | 71.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 47c | 68.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 66.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 30c | 65.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 45c | 58.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe36…5ceabacked Over | 46c | 57.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 45c | 55.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Over | 47c | 49.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…288ebacked Over | 30c | 48.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +35%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Over | 42c | 46.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 54c | 42.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 54c | 42.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 42c | 41.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 46c | 37.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e7…c87fbacked Over | 47c | 37.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Over | 46c | 35.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Under | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 55c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…14b1backed Over | 47c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 52c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4ed8backed Under | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 47c | 27.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked Over | 64c | 26.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf8…4d13backed Under | 54c | 21.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 74c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.