TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Athletics (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics70c8,170$5,690 inWon+$2,480.4310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants32c3,898$1,265 inLost-$1,265.1512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants35c3,077$1,069 inLost-$1,068.784,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants43c465.12$200 inLost-$20061351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Athletics45c426.33$192 inWon+$234.4834650.9%176 W · 170 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed San Francisco Giants28c378.63$107 inLost-$107.2330452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed San Francisco Giants27c366.79$100 inLost-$10094648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Athletics27c307.69$83 inWon+$224.6131046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics48c283$135 inWon+$147.998,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants27c224.7$61 inLost-$60.671,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants55c221.4$122 inLost-$122.318,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics40c184.23$74 inWon+$110.541,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants58c156.88$92 inLost-$91.782,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Athletics21c106$22 inWon+$83.7488053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked San Francisco Giants27c67$18 inLost-$18.091,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked San Francisco Giants62c58.97$37 inLost-$36.5610846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants26c57.81$15 inLost-$15.261,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics73c44.14$32 inWon+$11.924,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked San Francisco Giants30c40.17$12 inLost-$11.8932550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked San Francisco Giants51c40$20 inLost-$20.2233934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants52c38.85$20 inLost-$20.035,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics41c38$16 inWon+$22.466,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.