MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023db591d5195aa782d3e6060392d0ae1e37c95798a62f5881303dde60fc464d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 12,181$8,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,507.57 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 30c | 11,420$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,953.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,763$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.47 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 1,544$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.01 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 42c | 1,347$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.47 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 38c | 1,296$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 592.54$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.85 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 55c | 526.8$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Athletics | 38c | 525$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 64c | 414.05$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Athletics | 29c | 223$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Athletics | 37c | 222.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 210$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 201.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Athletics | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Athletics | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 37c | 143.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 136$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Athletics | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bac2backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 110.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Athletics | 25c | 78.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Athletics | 25c | 78.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 25c | 77.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 57c | 67.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Athletics | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 59.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 56.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Athletics | 33c | 40.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 36.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 30.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Athletics | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.