NBA · resolved market
Over 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c5b43ba025c1e19b51c2f2ff95ff997e765804e560f2e6b991114692a3039a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Under | 48c | 7,654$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 48c | 4,702$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.88 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 48c | 2,459$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.17 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 50c | 2,056$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.43 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 6c | 600.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 49c | 500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cdc2backed Over | 51c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Under | 51c | 320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Over | 47c | 318.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…c765backed Over | 51c | 119.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Under | 51c | 118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Under | 48c | 86.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Over | 52c | 86.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 55c | 78.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Over | 75c | 58.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…6b92backed Under | 51c | 50.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba0…7444backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…d575backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Under | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 42.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 48.4%191 W · 204 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…1b7fbacked Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Under | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 230.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. PacersPacers won
- Over 226.5Over won
- Over 228.5Over won
- Over 231.5Over won
- Over 236.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Underdog won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.