Movies · resolved market
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b83be2e67b1d13e299ef5a1e4a7d7682cdd69f5610de31afef10f5a27706ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 36c | 1,674$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 1,080$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.79 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 37c | 921.9$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.92 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 35c | 856.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 2c | 529.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 479.67$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.7 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 63c | 298$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 42c | 270$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 56c | 219$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 51c | 173.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c58cbacked Yes | 42c | 165$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…87bbbacked No | 59c | 163$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…1153backed No | 58c | 114$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…078cbacked Yes | 43c | 101.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 39c | 89.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 33c | 88.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…0cb9backed Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…8900backed No | 59c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679b…28c4backed Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 41c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +67%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…8e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7b…d5a0backed Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 43c | 42.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…47dfbacked Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…8b11backed Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…ce34backed Yes | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…db88backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c1…6d70backed Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…6827backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…c5edbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…dc24backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…0d92backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…c41bbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…f4bebacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4405…10c5backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd1…3c76backed No | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…46e3backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6287…9f3ebacked No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa375…bdd2backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…9d6ebacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…edccbacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…1249backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e7…4b32backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…2ed8backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…795fbacked Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3d5dbacked No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…dff4backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…4b63backed No | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…f093backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…6a53backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…6266backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…8457backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…6750backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6b…1049backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd78…17cbbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…5700backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…0bdbbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…1a4bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 4 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 8+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win between 5 and 7 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.