Movies · resolved market
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b81d62f81190b3dde5dc0f54caa686a014be2b5dd977b1867caceb0886cf731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,257$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 1,253$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.16 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 15c | 800$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 71c | 770$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 28c | 620$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 584.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 19c | 564.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 30c | 514.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 314.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…2b92backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…359cbacked Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…3b2fbacked Yes | 14c | 216$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 27c | 210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 27c | 209$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 12c | 192$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 154.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 141$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3a…aad9backed Yes | 27c | 139.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 13c | 132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 12c | 121$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…d349backed Yes | 17c | 118.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…28febacked Yes | 16c | 115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…f3bdbacked Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 14c | 101.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…5e76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 4 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 8+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win between 5 and 7 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.