Movies · resolved market
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe51e3ddc092cc1294994d67634507da9225bef0fbc5657dd239300345f139544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 19c | 4,768$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.88 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 37c | 4,317$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 33c | 3,601$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.15 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 1,302$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.02 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 1,265$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.53 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 63c | 1,058$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.13 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 31c | 1,019$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.15 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 36c | 907.25$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.7 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 29c | 471.43$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 34c | 440$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 33c | 411$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 63c | 364.52$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 331$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 34c | 330.12$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 69c | 286.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 26c | 240.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 72c | 232.01$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 35c | 202$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 36c | 199$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 22c | 132.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 67c | 108.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 69c | 75.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…0ccebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 70c | 53.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…64d3backed Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 74c | 44.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad1d…fdd9backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6258…7569backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 42.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…a7c8backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…c812backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…dbefbacked No | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…9b92backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b2…3df1backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…7655backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…df37backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…573cbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 4 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 8+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win between 5 and 7 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.