Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c06a455f698555bf1dcea7e44e4bd6cd8a23c62394e35a55c864009d834adc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $414,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $539,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf98…f72abacked Yes | 1c | 13,435$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 2c | 13,039$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…6c06backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,607$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 6,500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…84d8backed Yes | 7c | 6,457$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Yes | 11c | 4,543$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,791$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 8c | 3,386$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,150$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 2,674$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b1…09b1backed Yes | 8c | 2,362$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6511…400cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,707$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…1afebacked Yes | 1c | 1,546$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…959fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…79a0backed Yes | 7c | 1,157$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,148$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…e71fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,049$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 5c | 1,041$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…c7a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 6c | 999.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed Yes | 7c | 926.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…39debacked Yes | 11c | 912.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 1c | 889.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…100dbacked Yes | 3c | 886.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…dc5abacked Yes | 7c | 823.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 8c | 809.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…0b24backed Yes | 7c | 790$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 7c | 725.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…721ebacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked Yes | 9c | 621.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 597.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 6c | 549.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 15c | 526$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Yes | 10c | 501.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 444$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes | 7c | 434.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 6c | 428.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…ede7backed Yes | 7c | 414.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…288cbacked Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…561dbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…e290backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9d07backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…2dffbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…9ef4backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 7c | 275$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…858abacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 7c | 242.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…1c20backed Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9305…2017backed Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…d9b9backed Yes | 7c | 205.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +160.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 7c | 185.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed Yes | 9c | 174.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…e2a0backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…45a9backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c2…d1c4backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.