Champions League · resolved market
Will Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84903cf09d2b2acbd1bc203867cc8f7a1dbe78d82929654030149a45bd4587bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Yes | 0c | 119,025$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…b117backed Yes | 16c | 18,750$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…6e7abacked Yes | 15c | 2,188$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 13c | 1,846$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…c25ebacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 14c | 588.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 16c | 312.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 18c | 278.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 15c | 215.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 16c | 162.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 154$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…655ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 15c | 146.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 16c | 126.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…af72backed Yes | 16c | 125.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ae3ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…b708backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 15c | 116.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…6db5backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…bfdabacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…d472backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09?Yes won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.