MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c0d11036bc2c48dea653f9fa6afb5aa3b42ffca404b1a3a682c9ecc47870124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Orioles, Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Orioles | 58c | 5,000$2,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Angels | 40c | 4,087$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.14 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Angels | 44c | 3,599$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.6 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Angels | 38c | 2,446$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.75 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Orioles | 58c | 2,300$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.62 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 61c | 2,205$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.86 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Orioles | 38c | 1,990$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.28 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 56c | 1,708$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.51 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Angels | 62c | 1,360$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.53 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cdc2backed Orioles | 57c | 941.25$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Angels | 42c | 799.75$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.9 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 55c | 774.66$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Angels | 21c | 773$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Angels | 41c | 681.69$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.49 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 59c | 576.28$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.99 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Angels | 44c | 456.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Angels | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Orioles | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles | 58c | 298.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Angels | 43c | 232.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Angels | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Angels | 43c | 232.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Angels | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Angels | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Angels | 43c | 157.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Angels | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Angels | 44c | 152.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Angels | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Angels | 26c | 138.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…8935backed Angels | 62c | 132.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Angels | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Angels | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Orioles | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4316…7a37backed Angels | 44c | 77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…d97abacked Orioles | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Angels | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Angels | 43c | 63.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Angels | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Angels | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Angels | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Orioles | 60c | 37.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…c8fdbacked Orioles | 57c | 36.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c8…5e0dbacked Angels | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles | 57c | 34.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Angels | 42c | 32.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…8ce2backed Angels | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Orioles | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe028…b002backed Orioles | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.