TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Duke win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes73c3,976$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.12770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes61c3,130$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.234045%18 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No33c3,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98042948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No39c2,132$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.757936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Yes54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.851752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No36c1,394$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.961369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Yes64c1,093$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.194254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes54c1,010$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.141554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2b…f448backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.253050%15 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes58c714.85$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.282759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked No10c711.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.06468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No9c600$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No44c492$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.65425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No33c485.01$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1513936.7%51 W · 88 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes56c480.1$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.594522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-56.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes60c420$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.8887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No38c257.09$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.091747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdef7…4fd2backed Yes60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+59.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No45c202.93$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3230649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…5b14backed Yes52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964932.7%16 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4698…6c24backed Yes59c192.41$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.813669.4%25 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes53c182$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.541838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes79c169.9$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.962958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ba…bc65backed Yes72c142.67$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes53c130.91$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick40cpaid+115.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No45c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56923.2%16 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-49.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes53c104.38$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0610429.8%31 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No44c102.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Yes55c100.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.041643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3734842.8%149 W · 199 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes61c98.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.362638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes71c97.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.246934.8%24 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c94.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.553748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No46c83.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.27021.4%15 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ca…dda1backed Yes53c69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No29c54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5229012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c84…4e36backed Yes64c48.44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1615…a6afbacked Yes54c46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.162751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x697e…00a7backed No40c42.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4578…7ffdbacked No48c37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c0…9207backed No48c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddcc…d167backed Yes63c32.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce8…1661backed No41c29.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…f038backed Yes54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7700…5d77backed Yes63c21.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.