Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04102ce914032100ecb81c8f5ea5cad7d5ac52df2eefcf561d6a24c5bbc811b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 17c | 7,635$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.45 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 14c | 4,853$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.04 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 16c | 2,829$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.6 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 8c | 1,807$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 1,044$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 17c | 990$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 22c | 916.8$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 11c | 892$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 717$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 412.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 398.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 354.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 10c | 354$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 340.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 79c | 300.01$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 291.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…d6ddbacked Yes | 7c | 272.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 11c | 250.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…df89backed Yes | 6c | 228$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 9c | 195.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 176.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 176$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 152.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 152$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…6d52backed Yes | 10c | 128.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…4ab7backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?Yes won
- Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.