Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06cbf1c3758ff561bbf81442695050a62a8db52a58e0046a223b745dbc6a299b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 45c | 8,484$3,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.7 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…c889backed Yes | 19c | 3,727$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,528$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 2,581$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.34 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 2,250$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 1,593$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 15c | 1,429$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…8309backed Yes | 14c | 1,408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 28c | 1,140$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…f343backed No | 78c | 900$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…d4f3backed Yes | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 599.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d5…abe2backed Yes | 23c | 477.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 13c | 431.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 408.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 22c | 406.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…cdacbacked Yes | 24c | 397.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 367.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 19c | 354$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…6d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 323$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 78c | 285.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 285.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 17c | 238.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 228$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 15c | 214.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 183$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 171.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 23c | 168.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7162…050bbacked Yes | 29c | 165.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…eca0backed Yes | 12c | 154$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…eea2backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…8913backed Yes | 30c | 66.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 75c | 58.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 20c | 51.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?this page
- Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?Yes won
- Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.