Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34b67cf2ecd1f7eda5cf7c94b75fd1111e20e36e730cde0e7016a39cf4a2c6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 36c | 8,450$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.02 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 22c | 3,259$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.75 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 1,701$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.28 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 3c | 971.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 62c | 799.99$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 61c | 789$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.35 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 30c | 757$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.75 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 23c | 719.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 22c | 708.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 62c | 705.58$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.37 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 60c | 504.98$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91c…69a3backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…d4f3backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 69c | 443$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 382.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 33c | 354$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Yes | 39c | 341$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…a88abacked Yes | 25c | 314.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 63c | 281.7$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 30c | 264.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 255.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 27c | 241.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 65c | 233.09$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 200.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 63c | 191.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 39c | 178.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 63c | 146.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 32c | 130.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 111$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 41c | 106.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked No | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 84.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 39c | 80.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 37c | 74.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe370…c5f6backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eee…12d1backed Yes | 21c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…4ab7backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 59.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…eca0backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 25c | 57.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed No | 75c | 57.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 39c | 40.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 36.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…4049backed Yes | 41c | 27.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…2106backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fa…81e2backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…d130backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…ef94backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…14f2backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…559cbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c5…3657backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…5dc1backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d04…4e8cbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May?this page
- Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?Yes won
- Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.