NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x413af56d9315a78a4674513cd63fe0cce62c150821174a973b6147a90797a2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 5,019$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.89 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cavaliers | 52c | 3,056$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.63 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Pacers | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers | 48c | 2,090$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.8 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cavaliers | 53c | 2,062$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.61 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers | 47c | 1,863$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.38 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Pacers | 48c | 778.44$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.79 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…9bccbacked Pacers | 48c | 762.5$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e01…aae8backed Cavaliers | 53c | 762.26$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 746.3$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.08 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pacers | 46c | 594.35$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.95 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 310.89$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.95 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Pacers | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Pacers | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Cavaliers | 52c | 212.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Cavaliers | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 199.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Pacers | 40c | 173.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…55c8backed Pacers | 48c | 160.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…2bbebacked Cavaliers | 53c | 160.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Pacers | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Pacers | 70c | 121.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Pacers | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Pacers | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cavaliers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Cavaliers | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Cavaliers | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Cavaliers | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Pacers | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cavaliers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Pacers | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)this page
- Over 224.5Under won
- Over 226.5Under won
- Over 227.5Under won
- Over 228.5Under won
- Over 229.5Under won
- Over 230.5Under won
- Over 231.5Under won
- Over 232.5Under won
- Over 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersPacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.