NBA · resolved market
Over 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20cd1302c4d526d7a8b5972751fd054220056839226752016667f25504c0a169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 0c | 4,266$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6790…5e06backed Under | 47c | 950.31$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.66 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 49c | 799.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 52c | 544.96$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Under | 50c | 436.34$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.17 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 226.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Over | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Under | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…21b7backed Under | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 53c | 104.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Over | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…f78dbacked Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 229.5this page
- Over 224.5Under won
- Over 226.5Under won
- Over 227.5Under won
- Over 228.5Under won
- Over 230.5Under won
- Over 231.5Under won
- Over 232.5Under won
- Over 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersPacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.