NBA · resolved market
Over 211.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad620058805905271076bd2b4a57fd7d6d35a827f5a918a758e4a068f6e4304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Under | 50c | 1,612$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 49c | 1,192$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.92 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Over | 50c | 661$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.5 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Over | 49c | 550$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…47c4backed Over | 51c | 392.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 340.39$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…2dfcbacked Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 208 | 47.6%99 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Under | 50c | 158$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…2367backed Over | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 127.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Over | 52c | 121.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Over | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 364 | 34.9%127 W · 237 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…e458backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…9069backed Over | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…0cb6backed Under | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Under | 41c | 76.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Over | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…0fe0backed Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…adb8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…f88dbacked Over | 52c | 19.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 211.5this page
- Celtics vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Over 205.5Under won
- Over 208.5Under won
- Over 209.5Under won
- Over 210.5Under won
- Over 212.5Under won
- Over 213.5Under won
- Over 215.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.