TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x94a7…f88d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: UFC, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 52 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2025, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rays vs. Twinsbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Brewers vs. Marlinsbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+100%+$325.66
Twins vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$166.15
Royals vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Padres vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Twins vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.58
Brewers vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Red Sox vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Yankees vs. Dodgersbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Rays vs. Astrosbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Giants vs. Marlinsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pirates vs. Padresbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Tigers vs. Royalsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Angels vs. Guardiansbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+86.7%+$17.33
Athletics vs. Blue Jaysbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Giants vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Brewers vs. Philliesbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Red Sox vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Rays vs. Twinsbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Dodgers vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Blue Jays vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Panthers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Jets vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Golden Knights vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+116.2%+$23.25
All 5 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs Knicks: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+104%+$20.81
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Over 211.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.03
Over 203.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 4 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+25%+$16
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+115.1%+$23.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.