Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83afed5ffa2bebcd30467912149de6aad78081aa208bddf4747c8c6d46ce830e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 61c | 460.84$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 59c | 396.55$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 67c | 370.2$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 320.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 305.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 38c | 287.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.65 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 249.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 28c | 247.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 224.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 217.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 217.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 68c | 214.11$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 39c | 197.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 194.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 63c | 162.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 69c | 153.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 70c | 140.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 47c | 139$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 51c | 134.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 127.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 48c | 118.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 44c | 111.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 42c | 111.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 104.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 96.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 87.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 83.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 64c | 83.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 83.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 74c | 81.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 75.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 70c | 72.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 69.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 71c | 69.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 65.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 68c | 64.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 45c | 64.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 40c | 63.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 46c | 62.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…7e96backed Yes | 43c | 60.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 47c | 60.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 40c | 58.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 54.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…b712backed No | 69c | 54.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 67c | 53.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…6e80backed Yes | 53c | 50.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 37c | 50.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…06a2backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 49.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 48.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 48.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 46.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 45c | 46.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 63c | 46.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 41c | 45.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 58c | 44.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 74c | 44.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 32c | 43.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 56c | 42.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…9a72backed No | 29c | 41.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 41.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 40.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 26c | 39.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 39.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 39.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 40c | 39.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 49c | 38.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Yes | 42c | 37.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 39c | 36.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 67c | 34.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 71c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 65c | 33.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 46c | 33.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 61c | 32.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 32.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 62c | 32.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 38c | 29.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 40c | 29.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 69c | 28.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.