TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes61c460.84$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes59c396.55$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.491,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes67c370.2$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.971,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No24c320.71$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c305.56$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.798,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes38c287.19$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes46c249.39$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.84,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No28c247.89$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.222,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes41c224.08$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.251,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes36c217.96$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c217.5$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No68c214.11$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.179054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes39c197.55$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.516848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c194.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.382,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No63c162.23$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.375756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No69c153.79$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes70c140.15$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.198016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes47c139$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6334067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb557…634cbacked Yes51c134.16$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.131844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes36c127.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes48c118.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4411249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes44c111.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5317838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes42c111.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.215545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes43c104.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.633450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes45c96.65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes55c87.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.435,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c83.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No64c83.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.479959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes45c83.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4320750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No74c81.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c75.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.363,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes26c75.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5733243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes70c72.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes35c71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.159331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes46c69.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.770133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No71c69.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.063675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c65.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No68c64.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0734250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes45c64.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.112944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x045c…c74abacked Yes40c63.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes46c62.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.940739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1e…7e96backed Yes43c60.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.971346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes47c60.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.352334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes40c58.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4229835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes33c54.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5359125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39f2…b712backed No69c54.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No67c53.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.612363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3888…6e80backed Yes53c50.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-61.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes37c50.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7498236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd4…06a2backed Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.515435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes43c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.56041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c49.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.872,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c48.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.342,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes31c48.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes34c46.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258b…db84backed Yes45c46.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.695728.1%16 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No63c46.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.189361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes41c45.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.172740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5512337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No58c44.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5621440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes74c44.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes32c43.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7940242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes56c42.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9125344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc53f…9a72backed No29c41.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c41.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8470770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes35c40.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes26c39.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5326327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No55c39.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c39.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes40c39.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.584047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes49c38.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5611436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes37c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9411729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No46c37.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1728737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a17…8df6backed Yes42c37.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes39c36.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4711644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes67c34.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes71c34.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2329770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd011…0b65backed No65c33.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.973253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes46c33.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8842544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf64f…99d7backed No61c32.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.953948.7%19 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes47c32.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3935133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes31c32.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.262,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes62c32.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.163847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c31.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes46c31.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.31,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes38c29.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.377544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No66c29.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.324070%28 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8171…66a5backed Yes40c29.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.514526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No69c28.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No68c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.043423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes44c27.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.444233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.