TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes35c968.17$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.421,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c704.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.132,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes23c588.03$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.964,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked No74c526.41$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.838016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes54c475.13$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes30c390.15$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.586633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c385.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c364.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes11c278.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed No46c256.75$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9643238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2a…984dbacked Yes54c238.59$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c209.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6723…0f31backed Yes29c199.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.291338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3683…1bb0backed Yes30c183.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.831050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+97.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes43c178.58$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9914637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c175.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.457,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes27c168.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8564021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes17c167.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x402d…5c07backed No75c154.42$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.131346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed No73c149.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.491060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No73c148.79$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1912363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c142.1$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1f…493cbacked No73c134.49$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.83876.3%29 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ccf…2381backed No73c132.92$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.59785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes24c130.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7721235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes23c129.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes49c129.18$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c127.17$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes23c124.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2217138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes36c122.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes19c120.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2917838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes22c111.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c108.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c108.16$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.019,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes22c106.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c95.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c95.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd77e…43b3backed No68c94.37$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa722…0438backed Yes21c87.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes29c84.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No74c83.74$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0142976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a1…a453backed No72c77.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes31c75.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.791,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c72.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes27c72.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.479331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes28c69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.981,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked No79c65.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.699552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No78c63.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.033675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes20c62.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5708.6%6 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3020838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a1e…7e96backed Yes32c58.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No77c57.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4872952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd899…8e49backed Yes35c56.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e44…950fbacked Yes26c54.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes26c54.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0733535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c54.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0344…7f86backed Yes34c52.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.851435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc867…8b00backed No75c51.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.763743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No72c51.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.479462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-83.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes34c49.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8629835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes47c47.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4712337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes30c46.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.952334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c45.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c42.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.962,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c41.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1066735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e5…c4bbbacked Yes28c37.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No74c36.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.399959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked Yes38c35.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.191675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c33.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No80c31.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2112374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No63c30.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5320353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c30.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked No75c25.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.355667.9%38 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No80c24.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9214666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No72c24.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.869668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2a…ba61backed No65c22.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.871952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.117066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7d…10fcbacked No64c19.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.943663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No64c19.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9452155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No80c18.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.759666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No71c16.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6937533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No63c16.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9516065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…913fbacked No72c15.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.38475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No67c15.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabc6…acb4backed No70c15.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.531764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No71c14.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.