Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eef95a202ab5a054ffb70a91624751a06d8760ff21107c818fc5a0668099575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd78e…28b8backed Yes | 0c | 14,402$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,828$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 28c | 914.72$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.36 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 16c | 676.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 9c | 422.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed No | 70c | 371.02$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 80c | 324$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 29c | 321.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 8c | 224.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 15c | 217.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 26c | 211.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 195.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 190.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 186.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 184.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 20c | 184.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 176.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 149.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 11c | 129.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 123.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 121.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…1869backed Yes | 13c | 117.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 117.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 114.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 14c | 114.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 112.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 27c | 92.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…6e80backed Yes | 31c | 79.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 78.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 14c | 78.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 22c | 62.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 76c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 36.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 70c | 30.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 76c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 25.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 80c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 79c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 79c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 80c | 15.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.