TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes3c1,971$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9510642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb94a…d680backed No60c860.31$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.4112348%59 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes36c457.95$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.365,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Yes59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2072857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked No62c294.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.193053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes51c287.28$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No70c285.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.712,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cd…d809backed No62c262.09$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes37c255.08$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6725344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes36c228.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.511,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c223.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c209.76$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes24c209.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8465627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No63c206.74$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc232…ba4bbacked Yes37c194.4$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed Yes65c193.65$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8628839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1424…c73fbacked Yes67c185.3$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.761414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-80.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No46c183.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7943139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes41c177.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.074360.5%26 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes29c172.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc377…593fbacked No55c170.61$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0213964%89 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c154.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6969…c0c1backed Yes47c149.87$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.723542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c148.49$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.292,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes41c147.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.91,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c146.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c145.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.231,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes56c135.58$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1437644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes48c126.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0611140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb448…152dbacked Yes31c118.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c118.08$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.914,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc203…1ad2backed Yes40c116.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.021827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes68c102.6$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2664460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked No77c100.93$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0120445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes54c100.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9757…2dbfbacked No62c99.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.676750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed No41c94.18$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9938547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c82.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.263,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes41c80.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6427744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338f…6822backed No41c76.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.157847.4%37 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes60c74.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.351,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x925d…b68cbacked Yes44c73.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.42520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94da…25b5backed Yes27c73.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.033707.8%29 W · 341 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked Yes63c70.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5816631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No63c68.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.273675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No68c67.27$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes31c65.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1915834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed Yes77c63.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8410667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c62.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes38c61.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.316935.5%60 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked No31c59.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3918327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked No42c59.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.791060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No59c59.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.611,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes75c59.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8553258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c59.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6faf…01b6backed Yes48c59.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.493129%9 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+67.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes34c57.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6319427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c56.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3416575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6bc…59b0backed Yes20c54.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes45c52.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9940242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c52.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.949,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes52c52.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.58428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2771…896ebacked Yes66c49.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No69c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No71c49.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed No64c49.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.677250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No29c48.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1715435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes65c48.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2214062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No67c47.41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.581,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x815c…1082backed No72c46.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.992272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes47c45.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.362137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3023…465cbacked Yes26c44.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes26c43.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.417544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes28c43.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1151537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…2325backed No37c42.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7912365%80 W · 43 L+12.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No42c41.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1437570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4371…5049backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-54.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7630…789dbacked No36c38.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.613363.6%21 W · 12 L+8.9wins+0.27per pick37cpaid+144.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No63c38.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes74c38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.261040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes37c37.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c35.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.832,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No74c34.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1114671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185b…0f27backed No67c34.84$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No75c34.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.521676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c33.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No74c33.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No71c33.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6440777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.262,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed No35c31.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.716530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ada…8eeabacked No37c30.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.184075%30 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+31.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fd0…30a2backed Yes66c29.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd011…0b65backed No61c28.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.243253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.