Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d2337116cfecd9c9486dbe408a6d97132efabd0787ccbf3c543490dbbfaf11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 3c | 1,971$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 60c | 860.31$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.41 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 457.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 62c | 294.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 51c | 287.28$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 285.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed No | 62c | 262.09$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 37c | 255.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 228.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 223.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 209.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 209.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 63c | 206.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc232…ba4bbacked Yes | 37c | 194.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 65c | 193.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…c73fbacked Yes | 67c | 185.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 46c | 183.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 41c | 177.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 29c | 172.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 55c | 170.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 154.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 47c | 149.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 148.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 147.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 146.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 145.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 56c | 135.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 48c | 126.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb448…152dbacked Yes | 31c | 118.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 118.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…1ad2backed Yes | 40c | 116.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 68c | 102.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 77c | 100.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 54c | 100.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked No | 62c | 99.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 41c | 94.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 82.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 41c | 80.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 41c | 76.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 74.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x925d…b68cbacked Yes | 44c | 73.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 27c | 73.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 63c | 70.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 63c | 68.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 68c | 67.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 31c | 65.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed Yes | 77c | 63.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 62.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 38c | 61.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 59.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 75c | 59.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 59.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 48c | 59.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 57.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 56.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bc…59b0backed Yes | 20c | 54.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 52.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 52.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes | 52c | 52.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…896ebacked Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 49.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 64c | 49.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 29c | 48.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 65c | 48.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 47.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 72c | 46.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 47c | 45.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 26c | 44.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 26c | 43.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 28c | 43.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 37c | 42.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 42c | 41.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 36c | 38.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 38.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 37.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 35.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 34.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 67c | 34.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 34.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 33.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 33.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 71c | 33.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 35c | 31.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 37c | 30.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…30a2backed Yes | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 61c | 28.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.