Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a06d3ef3de34d9deffd96e9690697a9074441bd84f456b4a94824220c587af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 564.24$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 453.8$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 75c | 442.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 403.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.51 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 274.73$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 218.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.23 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 200.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 199.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 196.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 29c | 181.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 30c | 178.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 34c | 152.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 147.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 26c | 123.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 49c | 120.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 73c | 110.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 80c | 107.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 97.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 71c | 96.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 28c | 96.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 21c | 94.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 33c | 93.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 32c | 81.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 71c | 77.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 26c | 75.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 74.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 24c | 70.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 70c | 69.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 74c | 68.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 45c | 66.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 64.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 64.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 25c | 63.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 72c | 60.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed No | 69c | 56.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 53.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 30c | 53.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38a…0411backed Yes | 30c | 52.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 27c | 49.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 27c | 48.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 29c | 48.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 29c | 47.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…73f6backed Yes | 77c | 46.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 30c | 44.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…3c31backed No | 72c | 44.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed No | 78c | 43.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 25c | 42.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 34c | 41.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50a…72fbbacked Yes | 31c | 39.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 73c | 39.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 70c | 38.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 37c | 37.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 31c | 37.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 39c | 31.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 39c | 31.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 76c | 25.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 68c | 19.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…622cbacked No | 76c | 15.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.