Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b6141b9ba98747d857f8f00229ec55fc71efa28217e5fb209630565d100b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1d3…0321backed Yes | 11c | 2,100$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 36c | 793.95$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 383.56$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 326.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 26c | 195.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 190.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 181.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1978…dc07backed No | 74c | 163.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 9c | 163.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 148.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 47c | 131.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 124.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…b372backed Yes | 40c | 116.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 45c | 109.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 43c | 101.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 98.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 93.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 86.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 42c | 82.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 77.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 75.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 44c | 70.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 48c | 67.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 57.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 56.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 58c | 54.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 24c | 51.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 46.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 63c | 45.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea62…da0dbacked No | 55c | 41.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 38.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 66c | 36.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 33c | 31.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…1c51backed Yes | 64c | 30.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 39c | 29.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 63c | 28.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 27.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked No | 42c | 23.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 48c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 73c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 65c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f1…8e49backed Yes | 61c | 20.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.