TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No24c525.17$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.541,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c499.04$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52a4…ca72backed Yes61c483.31$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.616631.8%21 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes65c428.7$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes75c336.32$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1254143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No64c312.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c312.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No15c289.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6959021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c269.88$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c251.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.621,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c236.82$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.842,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes67c227.85$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1232147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes36c215.37$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8323823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c182.41$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.937,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes54c176.11$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes34c138.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.183246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes23c136.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes35c135.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2126834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes73c128.39$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c127.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.762,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No75c125.04$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.331,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c122.07$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No79c120.01$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.872,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c116.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes34c109.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes57c101.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.810642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes28c98.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.955733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes61c97.19$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0137644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c95.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.095,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c94.95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c84.3$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c77.64$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes35c73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6437942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…4ac3backed Yes36c72.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.556048.3%29 W · 31 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes24c71.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6635742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes50c70.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8219160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c69.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.021,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No44c66.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.934057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No74c64.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7914671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed Yes51c64.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.616764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No78c63.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes28c63.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.57544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes78c62.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No44c61.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.171,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No50c61.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x322c…1366backed Yes31c60.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.271656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+54.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6593734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes22c56.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes36c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2814544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes36c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2810059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No22c49.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9315435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes32c49.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7228648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes65c49.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.610658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No73c47.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9426566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c47.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.629,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c46.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.881,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes75c44.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0154154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c39.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.732,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No72c35.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.412,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes69c34.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.661,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No41c32.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4441767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes71c30.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9123463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No66c29.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No76c29.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.087061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No74c28.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4414666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes55c28.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed Yes52c27.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.185641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No52c27.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1917945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes73c26.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No72c26.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2348672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No65c26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No68c25.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.119668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No64c22.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4617376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No67c22.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6519547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No71c20.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f2…c2a5backed No73c19.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.413275%24 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No75c19.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.629666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe856…7347backed No75c16.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.382065%13 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick75cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5068…1ffabacked No75c16.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.385457.4%31 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x894b…93ccbacked No75c16.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.142065%13 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick75cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No77c14.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4811664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c13.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No78c12.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.