Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe713e517cc6a3b271364998453ceade35134384d5d09503b568eb78ff0bd4874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 24c | 525.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 499.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 61c | 483.31$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.61 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 428.7$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 336.32$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 312.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 312.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 289.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 269.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 251.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 236.82$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 227.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 36c | 215.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.83 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 182.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 54c | 176.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 34c | 138.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 23c | 136.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 35c | 135.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 73c | 128.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 127.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 125.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 122.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 120.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 116.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 109.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 57c | 101.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 28c | 98.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 61c | 97.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 95.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 94.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 84.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 77.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 35c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 36c | 72.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 24c | 71.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 50c | 70.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 69.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 44c | 66.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 64.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Yes | 51c | 64.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 63.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 28c | 63.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 78c | 62.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 44c | 61.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 50c | 61.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 31c | 60.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 56.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 22c | 49.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 32c | 49.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 65c | 49.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 47.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 46.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 75c | 44.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 39.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 35.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 69c | 34.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 41c | 32.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 71c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 29.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 76c | 29.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 28.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 55c | 28.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 52c | 27.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 52c | 27.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 26.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 26.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 68c | 25.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 67c | 22.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 71c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 73c | 19.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 19.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 75c | 16.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 75c | 16.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 75c | 16.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.